Here we are. The time has come. The 2010 Oscar ceremony is on sunday and, as part of my annual tradition to which you are now all invited to partake, is when I shall predict who 1) will win the Oscar and 2) should win the Oscar. No, I haven’t seen every movie, but here’s what I think anyway:
Best Supporing Actor:
Matt Damon in “Invictus” (Warner Bros.)
Woody Harrelson in “The Messenger” (Oscilloscope Laboratories)
Christopher Plummer in “The Last Station” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Stanley Tucci in “The Lovely Bones” (DreamWorks in association with Film4, Distributed by Paramount)
Christoph Waltz in “Inglourious Basterds” (The Weinstein Company)
Will Win AND Should Win:
This time, they’re both hands down the same person: Christoph Waltz. He’s won every award he could have over the past several months (beginning by winning at Cannes over the summer). One of the few locks of this year’s ceremony, Waltz will win for his deliciously evil portrayl of a Nazi in Tarantino’s WWII epic. For once, someone dared to overshadow Brad Pitt.
Best Supporting Actress:
Penélope Cruz in “Nine” (The Weinstein Company)
Vera Farmiga in “Up in the Air” (Paramount in association with Cold Spring Pictures and DW Studios)
Maggie Gyllenhaal in “Crazy Heart” (Fox Searchlight)
Anna Kendrick in “Up in the Air” (Paramount in association with Cold Spring Pictures and DW Studios)
Mo’Nique in “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” (Lionsgate)

Will Win AND Should Win:
Yet again, another basic lock. Mo’Nique, in an amazing turn from a low-level comedian to a satin-possess mother, delievers a powerful performance in Precious. The final scene alone would win her an Oscar.
Best Adapter Screenplay:
“District 9″ (Sony Pictures Releasing) Written by Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell
“An Education” (Sony Pictures Classics) Screenplay by Nick Hornby
“In the Loop” (IFC Films) Screenplay by Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche
“Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” (Lionsgate) Screenplay by Geoffrey Fletcher
“Up in the Air” (Paramount in association with Cold Spring Pictures and DW Studios) Screenplay by Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner
Will Win: Up in the Air
Proclaimed by some as the best film of the year, Up in the Air will take the screenplay gold as a consulation prize (seeing as it has no shot in any of the other five catagories in which it’s nominated). Reitman (who also penned the excellent Thank You For Smoking) weaves a tale involving real characters and real situations. The film recieved strong support for Best Picture early in the season, but as its momentum has slowed, so has its expectations. I would say its still a solid bet though.
Should Win: Precious
It’s close. Very close. If I had to vote, though, I’d give the nod to Precious for its ability to move. The mother, played amazingly by Mo’Nique, is drawn so precisely by the screenplay, which allows you to hate her so much, yet finds sympathy for her in the film’s final moments. If anythin has a chance to upset, I would put my money here. Unfortunately, awards voters haven’t been as strongly moved by it as I have.
Best Original Screenplay:
“The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment) Written by Mark Boal
“Inglourious Basterds” (The Weinstein Company) Written by Quentin Tarantino
“The Messenger” (Oscilloscope Laboratories) Written by Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman
“A Serious Man” (Focus Features) Written by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
“Up” (Walt Disney) Screenplay by Bob Peterson, Pete Docter; Story by Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, Tom McCarthy

Will Win: Inglorious Basterds
Tarantino yet again, as he did with Pulp Fiction, will have to settle for Best Screenplay. Personally, I think the best feature of the film is the expert directing, but Tarantino falls short of Bigelow in that category. Basterds came out of nowhere to take home the top prize at this year’s SAG Awards and, although it fell short of even a nomination at the Writer’s Guild, the Oscars love off-beat films in this category. They aren’t brave enough to give it director or picture, but here it’s a safer bet. I’d watch out for The Hurt Locker though, it took home the Writer’s Guild award and could sweep this year’s Oscars.
Should Win: The Hurt Locker
The Hurt Locker is, in some ways, poetry. It depicts war as it is; no gimmics; no jazz. I respect that. Powerful and moving, it should win.
Best Actress:
Sandra Bullock in “The Blind Side” (Warner Bros.)
Helen Mirren in “The Last Station” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Carey Mulligan in “An Education” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Gabourey Sidibe in “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” (Lionsgate)
Meryl Streep in “Julie & Julia” (Sony Pictures Releasing)
Will Win: Sandra Bullock
If you told me at the beginning of the awards season that The Blind Side would sneak its way into the Best Actress and Best Picture races, I would have laughed in your face. And it took quite a while for me to become a Bullock believer (not until the SAG Awards, actually). But she’s won too many awards and has too much momentum to be stopped.
Should Win: Gabourey Sidibe
I didn’t see any of the other nominations, so I don’t know how much this means, but Sadibe was excellent as Precious. Real. No other way to describe it.

Best Actor:
Jeff Bridges in “Crazy Heart” (Fox Searchlight)
George Clooney in “Up in the Air” (Paramount in association with Cold Spring Pictures and DW Studios)
Colin Firth in “A Single Man” (The Weinstein Company)
Morgan Freeman in “Invictus” (Warner Bros.)
Jeremy Renner in “The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment)
Will Win AND Should Win: Jeff Bridges
Colin Firth put up quite a battle for a while, but for weeks it’s been all Bridges. Admittedly, I didn’t love the movie as much as some, but it nearly entirely hinges on Bridges performance as Bad Blake, and he pulls it off. It’ll be nice to see the five-time nominee finally get some love. Similar to The Wrestler, an ok screenplay with excellent performances, but this time there’s no Sean Penn to end the cinderella story of the little movie that could.
Best Director:
“Avatar” (20th Century Fox) James Cameron
“The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment) Kathryn Bigelow
“Inglourious Basterds” (The Weinstein Company) Quentin Tarantino
“Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” (Lionsgate) Lee Daniels
“Up in the Air” (Paramount in association with Cold Spring Pictures and DW Studios) Jason Reitman
Will Win AND Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow
She won the Director’s Guild (which predicts the Oscar winner 80-something percent of the time). She won numerous critics awards. She’ll be the first woman ever to win. Everything points in her favor. Yes, Avatar was excellent filmaking and an unbelievable achievement, but this isn’t 1997, and it isn’t Titanic. James Cameron has his moment in the sun, and now its time for his ex-wife to. Brave and powerful, The Hurt Locker is a film that stays with you long after the credits roll, and its mostly a product of the excellent handling of Bigelow.
Best Picture:
“Avatar” (20th Century Fox) A Lightstorm Entertainment Production James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers
“The Blind Side” (Warner Bros.) An Alcon Entertainment Production Nominees to be determined
“District 9″ (Sony Pictures Releasing) A Block/Hanson Production Peter Jackson and Carolynne Cunningham, Producers
“An Education” (Sony Pictures Classics) A Finola Dwyer/Wildgaze Films Production Finola Dwyer and Amanda osey, Producers
“The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment) A Voltage Pictures Production Nominees to be determined
“Inglourious Basterds” (The Weinstein Company) A Weinstein Company/Universal Pictures/A Band Apart/Zehnte Babelsberg Production Lawrence Bender, Producer
“Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” (Lionsgate) A Lee Daniels Entertainment/Smokewood Entertainment Production Lee Daniels, Sarah Siegel-Magness and Gary Magness, Producers
“A Serious Man” (Focus Features) A Working Title Films Production Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, Producers
“Up” (Walt Disney)A Pixar Production Jonas Rivera, Producer
“Up in the Air” (Paramount in association with Cold Spring Pictures and DW Studios) A Montecito
Will Win AND Should Win: The Hurt Locker

I loved Avatar. It was a stunning visual and movie going experience, but The Hurt Locker is a film that you hold onto. It effects you, the way you think, the way you act. In an interview, Jeremy Renner talked about the dangers of film such a realistic war movie that took the cast and crew so close to enemy territory. He told stories about being shot at, about having boards with nails thrown at them. This is brave filming at its finest.
The Rest:
Best Animared Feature:
“Coraline” (Focus Features) Henry Selick
“Fantastic Mr. Fox” (20th Century Fox) Wes Anderson
“The Princess and the Frog” (Walt Disney) John Musker and Ron Clements
“The Secret of Kells” (GKIDS) Tomm Moore
“Up” (Walt Disney) Pete Docter
Will Win: Up
Best Cinematography: 
“Avatar” (20th Century Fox) Mauro Fiore
“Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince” (Warner Bros.) Bruno Delbonnel
“The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment) Barry Ackroyd
“Inglourious Basterds” (The Weinstein Company) Robert Richardson
“The White Ribbon” (Sony Pictures Classics) Christian Berger
Will Win: Avatar, hard to pick against it in a technical category, although Inglorious Basterds definitely has a shot.
Best Foreign Film:
“Ajami”(Kino International) An Inosan Production Israel
“El Secreto de Sus Ojos” (Sony Pictures Classics) A Haddock Films Production Argentina
“The Milk of Sorrow” A Wanda Visión/Oberon Cinematogràfica/Vela Production Peru
“Un Prophète” (Sony Pictures Classics) A Why Not/Page 114/Chic Films Production France
“The White Ribbon” (Sony Pictures Classics) An X Filme Creative Pool/Wega Film/Les Films du Losange/Lucky Red Production Germany
Will Win: The White Ribbon
Best Documentary:
“Burma VJ” (Oscilloscope Laboratories)
A Magic Hour Films Production Anders Østergaard and Lise Lense-Møller
*“The Cove” (Roadside Attractions)
An Oceanic Preservation Society Production Nominees to be determined
“Food, Inc.” (Magnolia Pictures) A Robert Kenner Films Production Robert Kenner and Elise Pearlstein
“The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers”
A Kovno Communications Production Judith Ehrlich and Rick Goldsmith
“Which Way Home” A Mr. Mudd Production Rebecca Cammisa
Will Win: The Cove
Best Film Editing:
“Avatar” (20th Century Fox) Stephen Rivkin, John Refoua and James Cameron
“District 9″ (Sony Pictures Releasing) Julian Clarke
“The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment) Bob Murawski and Chris Innis
“Inglourious Basterds” (The Weinstein Company) Sally Menke
“Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” (Lionsgate) Joe Klotz
Will Win: Great movies are made in the editing room, so the best film will win for best editing, The Hurt Locker
Visual Effects:

“Avatar” (20th Century Fox) Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham and Andrew R. Jones
“District 9″ (Sony Pictures Releasing) Dan Kaufman, Peter Muyzers, Robert Habros and Matt Aitken
“Star Trek” (Paramount and Spyglass Entertainment) Roger Guyett, Russell Earl, Paul Kavanagh and Burt Dalton
Will Win: Avatar
Best Sound Mixing:
“Avatar” (20th Century Fox) Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, Andy Nelson and Tony Johnson
“The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment) Paul N.J. Ottosson and Ray Beckett
“Inglourious Basterds” (The Weinstein Company) Michael Minkler, Tony Lamberti and Mark Ulano
“Star Trek” (Paramount and Spyglass Entertainment) Anna Behlmer, Andy Nelson and Peter J. Devlin
“Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen” (DreamWorks and Paramount in association with Hasbro, Distributed by Paramount) Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers and Geoffrey Patterson
Will Win: Avatar
Best Sound Editing:
“Avatar” (20th Century Fox) Christopher Boyes and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle
“The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment) Paul N.J. Ottosson
“Inglourious Basterds” (The Weinstein Company) Wylie Stateman
“Star Trek” (Paramount and Spyglass Entertainment) Mark Stoeckinger and Alan Rankin
“Up” (Walt Disney) Michael Silvers and Tom Myers
Will Win: Inglorious Basterds
Best Costume Design:
“Bright Star” (Apparition) Janet Patterson
“Coco before Chanel” (Sony Pictures Classics) Catherine Leterrier
“The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus” (Sony Pictures Classics) Monique Prudhomme
“Nine” (The Weinstein Company) Colleen Atwood
“The Young Victoria” (Apparition) Sandy Powell
Will Win: The Young Victoria
Best Make-Up:
“Il Divo” (MPI Media Group through Music Box) Aldo Signoretti and Vittorio Sodano
“Star Trek” (Paramount and Spyglass Entertainment) Barney Burman, Mindy Hall and Joel Harlow
“The Young Victoria” (Apparition) Jon Henry Gordon and Jenny Shircore
Will Win: Star Trek
Best Original Song:
“Almost There” from “The Princess and the Frog” (Walt Disney) Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
“Down in New Orleans” from “The Princess and the Frog” (Walt Disney) Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
“Loin de Paname” from “Paris 36″ (Sony Pictures Classics) Music by Reinhardt Wagner. Lyric by Frank Thomas
“Take It All” from “Nine” (The Weinstein Company) Music and Lyric by Maury Yeston
“The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)” from “Crazy Heart” (Fox Searchlight) Music and Lyric by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett
Will Win: The Weary Kind
Best Original Score:

“Avatar” (20th Century Fox) James Horner
“Fantastic Mr. Fox” (20th Century Fox) Alexandre Desplat
“The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment) Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders
“Sherlock Holmes” (Warner Bros.) Hans Zimmer
“Up” (Walt Disney) Michael Giacchino
Will Win: Up
Best Art Direction:
“Avatar” (20th Century Fox) Art Direction: Rick Carter and Robert Stromberg
Set Decoration: Kim Sinclair
“The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus” (Sony Pictures Classics) Art Direction: Dave Warren and Anastasia Masaro
Set Decoration: Caroline Smith
“Nine” (The Weinstein Company) Art Direction: John Myhre
Set Decoration: Gordon Sim
“Sherlock Holmes” (Warner Bros.) Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood
Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
“The Young Victoria” (Apparition) Art Direction: Patrice Vermette
Set Decoration: Maggie Gray
Will Win: Avatar